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Consumer confidence fell to a 5-month low in February, with fewer consumers planning to spend on homes, automobiles, and vacations.

Concerns over even greater inflation are mounting this week, as oil prices surged to more than $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014.

The labor market continues to show strength. Last week's unemployment claims were lower than expected, and continuing claims hit a 52-year low.

 

Homebuilder confidence fell for the 2nd straight month, as builders face delays for cabinets, garage doors and appliances needed to finish homes.

January existing home sales jumped 6.7% over December, even though the supply of homes for sale fell to a record low, down 16.5% from a year ago.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 17.5% overall from the 4th quarter of 2020 to the 4th quarter of 2021.

 

 

 

 

Minutes from last month's Fed meeting show the Fed is ready to raise policy rates as soon as March to help curb soaring inflation.

Retail sales rose 3.8% in January, the most since March, beginning the year strong despite inflation and Omicron.

Similar to consumer inflation, which hit its highest level since 1982, January wholesale prices were up a near-record 9.7% year over year.

 

Soaring lumber prices add nearly $19K to the cost of a new home. Though 22% below peak, prices are still about 3 times higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Homebuyers facing one of the priciest housing markets in history need larger mortgages. The average purchase loan size has hit a record $453K.

Last week’s purchase apps were down only 1% compared to the previous week, though refinance apps have fallen more as rates have risen.


  • Unemployment claims for last week came in lower than expected at 223K. Claims have dropped from a record high of 6.149 million in early 2020.
  • Consumer prices surged even higher than expected in January, climbing 7.5% year over year. That’s the largest annual gain since 1982.
  • A strong labor market and rising inflation have increased the probability of a larger policy rate hike to come at March's Fed meeting.

  • Foreclosures were up in January after a pandemic moratorium ended, though still less than 50% of January 2020’s pre-pandemic level.
  • Home prices are unlikely to drop as competition among buyers remains unseasonably strong. Inventories are down 28% from a year ago.
  • The average home spent just 61 days on the market, according to a January reading from Realtor.com. That is the fastest pace ever recorded.


Private payrolls fell by 301K in January vs the expected 200K gain, according to ADP. The drop is blamed on the Omicron variant’s spread.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation gauge watched closely by the Fed, rose 4.9% year over year in December.

Job openings totaled nearly 11 million in December, more than 4.6 million above the total unemployment level, according to the Labor Department.

 

Although housing inventory remains tight, single-family housing starts reached 1.123 million last year, the highest level since 2006.

Newly built homes made up more than one-third of homes for sale in December, the highest share on record, according to Redfin.

Purchase applications were up 4% last week, while refi applications jumped 18% for the week. Both were still lower than a year ago.


The Fed didn't raise policy rates at this week's meeting but did signal a possible March hike. Markets are now pricing in up to 6 hikes in 2022.

Economic growth accelerated by more than forecast in the 4th quarter, fueled by the rebuilding of inventories and a pickup in consumer spending.

Fewer workers applied for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the job market continues to recover from the impact of COVID-19.

 

Case-Shiller reports home prices surged 18.8% year-over-year in November, even as the housing market entered a normally slower season.

New home sales jumped by 11.9% to a 9-month high in December, boosted by a severe shortage of previously owned houses on the market.

A total of 6.12 million previously owned homes were sold in 2021, the most since 2006, despite an acute shortage of available inventory.

 

 


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