MarketMinute | How is inflation impacting holiday spending plans?
November job growth numbers came in at a disappointing 210K, below the expected 573K. Despite the big hiring miss, unemployment fell to 4.2%. |
Jobless claims dropped last week to 184K, the lowest level since 1969. A strong labor market could influence the Fed at next week's meeting. |
A recent survey shows individuals plan to spend an average of $1,004 on gifts this holiday season, the highest in 3 years, despite inflation worries. |
A brief drop in mortgage rates from Omicron concerns caused a sudden surge in refinancing last week. Refi applications jumped 9% for the week. |
Purchase apps, which are less sensitive to weekly rate moves, fell for the first time in 4 weeks, down 5% for the week and 8% year over year. |
The FHFA announced 2022 loan limits. Conforming limits start at $647,200, and FHA limits start at $420,680, with high-cost areas nearing $1 million. |
The new Omicron variant of COVID-19 shook up markets this week. Stocks dropped and bonds rallied, helping mortgage rates remain low. |
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress this week has markets concerned the Fed may raise rates sooner than expected in 2022. |
The labor market continues to recover. Unemployment claims remained down last week, and continuing claims fell to a pandemic low. |
Case Shiller reports home price gains slowed down for the first time since May 2020, but year-over-year prices were still 19.5% higher in September. |
Pending home sales rebounded sharply in October, despite rising mortgage rates. Signed contracts on existing homes were up 7.5% from September. |
Construction spending rose moderately in October, though spending fell 0.8% for single-family homes and 0.1% for multi-family projects. |
MarketMinute | What are home building's mixed messages?
Retail sales, a measure of how much consumers spent on goods ranging from autos to food and gas, rose faster than expected in October, even as inflation pushed prices higher. |
Despite the strong sales, consumer sentiment hit a 10 yr low in November. Consumers are concerned about the current surge in prices of goods and services. |
Jobless claims dropped again last week, as the labor market recovery continues. Now a shortage of workers seems to be the obstacle to faster job growth. |
Higher prices and longer wait times do not appear to be turning buyers away from new homes. With robust demand, homebuilder confidence rose to the highest level since May. |
Despite strong builder confidence, new home starts unexpectedly fell 0.7% in October. Activity remains constrained by shortages of materials and scarce land and labor. |
Total mortgage application volume fell 2.8% last week compared with the previous week. However, purchase apps were up 2% for the week as buyers appear to be coming back. |
Consumer prices jumped 6.2% in October, the biggest inflation surge in 30 years. Core inflation, stripping out food and energy, increased 4.6%, the fastest gain since 1991. |
Wholesale prices rose 8.6% year over year in October, tied for highest ever. With the big increases in inflation, markets are speculating the Fed will raise policy rates sooner. |
Jobless claims last week fell to pre-pandemic norms, demonstrating the labor market's continuing recovery from last year's downturn. |
A brief drop in mortgage rates helped boost refinance demand, with refi applications rising 7% over the previous week. Purchase applications were up 3% for the week. |
Despite Zillow's move out of the iBuyer game, Opendoor and Offerpad posted strong quarterly reports that gave investors confidence in the model. |
Homeownership continues to be a great way to build wealth. Accounting for inflation, home prices have jumped 118% since 1965, while income has increased by only 15%. |
MarketMinute | Is Zillow out of the home buying business?
The Fed left policy rates unchanged at this week's meeting and announced it will begin reducing bond purchases by $15 billion a month starting in November. |
Jobless claims for last week came in lower than expected at 269,000, a new pandemic low, as the labor market continues to recover. Continuing claims fell to 2.1 million. |
Private companies added 571,000 jobs for the month according to ADP, beating the 395,000 Dow Jones estimate. Leisure and hospitality led the way with 185,000 new positions. |
Zillow announced this week it will be exiting Offers, the business it started in December 2019 to buy and flip homes. The move will eliminate 25% of their workforce. |
Mortgage applications fell last week, with purchase apps down 2% for the week and 9% from a year ago. Refi apps dropped 4% for the week and 33% from last year. |
High prices and low inventory continue to restrain purchase activity, but current application levels still point to a healthy housing market and demand. |