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The Fed announced a new strategy this week to restore the labor market to full employment and lift inflation. Rising inflation typically pressures rates higher.

A second reading of the 2nd quarter GDP showed the economy plunged by a worst-ever 31.7%. However, this was actually better than the initial estimates.

Initial jobless claims last week came in at roughly 1 million, suggesting the labor market recovery could be stalling. Numbers should improve as businesses continue to reopen.

 

 

The housing market remains a bright spot in the economy, with July's existing home sales up a record 24.7%. However, tight inventory continues to be a problem.

Pending home sales were also up, jumping more than 15% annually. Properties are going under contract in record time, with 9 new contracts for every 10 new listings.

Low mortgage rates, strong demand, and low inventory are driving home prices higher. The median price of a home sold in July rose 8.5% annually to $304,100.

 

 

 


Minutes from the last Fed meeting affirm obvious coronavirus concerns and underscore the Fed's recent actions to keep rates low.

Stocks have continued to rally after hitting a pandemic low in March, with some indices reaching new highs. However, mortgage rates have not risen, as often happens when stocks rally.

Continuing unemployment claims fell last week, though initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose back above 1 million, perhaps signaling a setback for the struggling job market.

 

 

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes jumped 6 points to 78 in August, a record high for the NAHB Housing Market Index.

Homebuilding picked up for a 3rd straight month in July, with residential starts jumping by 22.6%. Construction surged at the highest rate since 2016, beating expectations.

Permits for future construction increased 18.8%, the most since January 1990. The 1.5 million annual rate topped the median estimate and is now above the February pre-pandemic rate.

 

 


Freddie Mac's weekly average interest rate on 30-yr., fixed-rate mortgages hit its lowest level in the survey's 49-year history. This is the 8th time this year for record lows.

The ISM manufacturing index increased to 54.2 in July, indicating manufacturing expansion for the 3rd consecutive month after the spring's steep collapse.

Initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week to the lowest since the pandemic started. The broad decline across nearly all states suggests labor market improvement.

 

 

 

Home prices increased 4.9% in June, even higher than May's 4.1% annual increase, according to CoreLogic. Prices climbed 1.0%, the fastest monthly gain for June since 2013.

Despite rising prices, home affordability was the best level in 4 years, requiring only 19.8% of the median monthly income to make the mortgage payment on an average priced home.

Construction spending fell for the 4th straight month in June. However, even after the declines, spending at the end of June was 5% higher than it was through first 6 months of 2019.

 

At this week's regular meeting, the Fed pledged to keep policy rates near zero until the economy stabilizes. Bond purchases will also continue in support of the markets.

Jobless claims rose for a 2nd week in a row to 1.43 million, after several weeks of improvement. The increase was slight, with only 12,000 more claims than the week before.

Consumer confidence fell more than expected in July, as some businesses had to close again or halt reopenings amid a flare-up in COVID-19 infections across the country.

 

According to Case-Shiller, national home prices rose 4.5% year-over-year in May. Prices continue to get a boost from record low mortgage rates.

Pending home sales surged for the 2nd consecutive month in June, rising 16.6% monthly and up 6.3% from June 2019. The NAR improved their 2020 housing market forecast.

The U.S. homeownership rate surged to 67.9%, its highest point since the Great Recession. The rate increased 3.8% over last year and 2.6% over last quarter.

 


 

With COVID-19 cases on the rise and the extra $600/wk in unemployment assistance set to expire next week, Congress is facing mounting pressure to pass another aid package.

Optimism about a potential vaccine, fiscal stimulus, and economic improvement has helped the benchmark S&P 500 rise 1.4% this year, recouping most of its virus-induced losses.

Jobless claims rose last week for the first time since March, signaling a labor market stall. The increase is likely due to states' reversing course on re-opening businesses.

 

 

Existing home sales surged nearly 21% in June, the highest monthly gain on record. The increase follows 3 months of sharp declines due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Home prices continued to rise through the pandemic, according to the FHFA index. Prices increased 5.5% year-over-year in April and were up 0.2% from March.

Weekly mortgage demand from homebuyers jumped even higher, up 19% annually. Refinance applications increased 5% for the week and 122% over last year.

 

 

 


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