Private companies added 174k jobs in January, versus a 50k estimate, according to ADP. Leisure and hospitality added 35k for the month but remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

The ISM manufacturing index rose to the highest level in almost 2 1/2 years in December. Manufacturers have expanded for 7 months in a row since the economy reopened last spring.

Jobless claims decreased for the 3rd week in a row to the lowest level since November, a sign that job cuts are starting to slow as COVID-19 infection numbers ebb.

• The full year GDP for 2020 declined 3.5%, the worst year for the U.S. since the end of WWII. However, 4th qtr GDP grew at a 4% rate, led by gains in consumer spending.

• At this week's meeting, the Fed voted to keep policy rates unchanged and committed to continuing the bond purchase program that has helped drive mortgage rates to all time lows.

• Jobless claims fell more than expected last week, signaling a possible easing after increases in December and early January. Continuing claims also dropped to 4.77 million.

• November home prices rose 9.5% according to Case-Shiller, one of the highest gains on record. Phoenix, Seattle, and San Diego continued to show the strongest price appreciation.

• A recent Conference Board survey showed consumers more than willing to buy homes in the next 6 months, indicating the housing market will continue to underpin the economy.

• Despite rising home prices, December's new home sales rose for the first time in 5 months, capping the best year since 2006 as record low mortgage rates drove demand.

• Now that President Biden is in office, his administration is expected to push to get another large stimulus bill passed, this one speculated to be $1.9 trillion.

• Stock markets continue to hit new record highs, counting on vaccines and fiscal stimulus to drive economic recovery in 2021. This could pressure rates higher through the year.

• Jobless claims last week came in at 900,000 for the week, which was slightly better than the prior week's 926,000. Continuing claims came in at 5.05 million for the week.

• Builder confidence in the single-family home market fell 3 points to 83 in January's NAHB Housing Market Index. Anything above 50 is considered positive.

• Housing starts rose to the fastest pace since 2006 in December, with single-family construction driving gains with a 14-year high. This was the 8th straight increase.

• The FHFA has extended the moratorium on evictions and foreclosures for the 5th time. Originally scheduled to expire June 2020, the moratorium now runs until Feb. 28.

Consumer prices increased in December, but underlying inflation remained tame. Low inflation is good because rising inflation can pressure mortgage rates higher.

President-elect Joe Biden released his plans for more fiscal stimulus when he takes office. The added stimulus is expected to help the economy but could pressure mortgage rates higher.

Jobless claims surged last week, confirming a weakening in the labor market as virus counts rise and the pandemic disrupts operations at restaurants and other businesses.

• The Democrats' sweep of Senate seats in Georgia completed the "Blue Wave" and added to expectations of increased economic stimulus in 2021, which could lead to rising rates.

• Private payrolls posted the first drop since April, as reported by ADP. Leisure and hospitality suffered the biggest losses, with most cuts coming from large businesses.

• Last month's Fed meeting minutes showed that markets will get plenty of notice before any cuts on bond purchases. The reassurance will help keep mortgage rates low.