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Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

  • A recent Fed survey showed the economy held steady in early January. Some regions experienced modest declines in activity.
  • Prices for wholesale goods and services fell sharply in December, providing another sign that inflation is beginning to ease, though still high.
  • December's retail sales fell by the most in a year, and business equipment production slumped, indicating the economy may be losing momentum.

  • Homebuilder sentiment posted an unexpected gain in January, rising for the first time in 12 months.
  • Single-family homebuilding rebounded with an 11.3% increase in December. Total new home construction fell for a 4th straight month.
  • Mortgage application volume jumped nearly 28% for the week, with purchase apps rising 25% over the previous week. 

 

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

  • More new jobs than forecast were created in December. However, wage growth was lower than expected, helping mortgage rates.
  • Inflation continued to slow in December, signaling prices have peaked and giving markets hope the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate hikes.
  • Weakening demand in December led to the first services industry contraction in more than 2-1/2 years, signaling a slowing economy.

  • Mortgage applications rose 1.2% last week over the previous week, although purchase applications were down 1% on the week.
  • NAR's Nadia Evangelou, director of forecasting, predicts mortgage rates likely will settle below 6% and experience less volatility this year.
  • In December, 21% of survey respondents told Fannie Mae now is a good time to buy a home, up from 16% in November. 

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

  • Demand for employment remained high in November as companies looked for workers to fill positions despite worries of a looming recession.
  • Minutes from last month's Fed meeting showed officials were still focused on stamping out inflation but gave few clues about future rate hikes.
  • A December reading of the manufacturing sector showed factory activity slowing down. The prices producers paid their suppliers fell.

 

  • A large drop in mortgage applications last week made headlines. Higher rates were blamed, though apps typically fall some at year’s end.
  • Cash-out refinances will cost consumers more in 2023 due to higher fees from the FHFA. Refis still make up almost one third of mortgage apps.
  • Beginning in March, Freddie Mac will require a first lien mortgage to be at least 12 months old before it can be paid off by a cash-out refinance. 

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News

 


Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

  • The dollar is ending the year on the defensive, having given back roughly half of its 2022 gains, as investors bet inflation is slowing.
  • Jobless claims rose only modestly last week and held near prepandemic levels, suggesting the labor market remains historically tight.
  • Purchasing power of middle-income household paychecks fell 2.9% in 2022, as inflation hit middle earners harder than other groups.

  • Month-over-month house prices were flat in October, changing 0.0%, according to FHFA. Prices rose 9.8% over October 2021.
  • Pending home sales fell 4% in November, more than expected. Higher mortgage rates and tight inventory continue to affect the housing market.
  • Mortgage applications rose 0.9% last week. Refinance apps were up 6% week over week, and purchase apps were down 0.1% for the week. 

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

  • Consumer prices came in better than expected in November, up just 0.1% from October and up 7.1% over last year, signaling inflation is ebbing.
  • Consumers pulled back on spending in November, with retail sales for the month declining 0.6%, more than the expected 0.3% drop.
  • The Fed raised policy rates 0.5% this week and signaled more rate hikes to come in 2023 as it continues to fight inflation.

  • Although still lower than a year ago, purchase mortgage applications were up 4% last week. Refinance applications rose 3%.
  • Home office updates and induction cooktops are in for 2023, while high pile carpet, subway tiles, and open shelves are losing popularity.
  • NAR predicts a total of 4.78 million existing home sales in 2023, down from the 5.13 million existing home sales expected to close in 2022. 

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


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