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MarketMinute | What's Supporting Home Prices?

Dec 9

4:19

AM

Category | Markets in a Minute

Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

Nonfarm payrolls rose 263K in October, well above the expected 200K. Wages jumped 0.6%, double the estimate, which could fuel inflation.

Money supply growth fell in October to a 39-month low, continuing a 7-month decline and signaling a slowdown in economic activity.

After 4 consecutive 0.75% interest rate hikes, the Fed is widely expected to increase rates by 0.50% at its December meeting next week.

Black Knight reports the pace of home price declines slowed by 0.43% in October, the smallest drop this year, due to inventory shortages.

According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, almost 70% of households with mortgages have rates below 4% and are reluctant to sell.

Despite steadily improving rates, purchase mortgage applications fell 1.9% week to week and were 40% lower than the same week a year ago.

MarketMinute | Is Inflation Cooling?

Dec 2

2:18

AM

Category | Markets in a Minute

Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

A gauge of consumer spending posted the 2nd smallest increase this year, offering hope that the Fed's policy rate hikes are cooling inflation.

Consumer confidence fell in November to the lowest level since July, a sign the economy could be slowing, which could help rates.

Jobless claims rose last week to the highest number since February. A cooling labor market could also help rates and inflation.

Home prices rose 10.6% year over year in September, according to Case Shiller, though prices fell 0.8% from the previous month.

Pending home sales fell for a 5th straight month in October, down 4.6%. However, buyers are expected to return in the coming months.

Conforming loan limits increased from $647,200 to $726,200 for 2023. High-cost areas now break 7 figures with limits of $1,089,300.

MarketMinute | Rates Are Down and Apps Are Up

Nov 18

3:08

AM

Category | Markets in a Minute

Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

On the heels of last week's better than expected consumer inflation report, new wholesale inflation data also came in better than expected.

Retail sales surged by 1.3% in October as consumers continued spending despite inflation, showing the economy is not yet slowing.

Jobless claims dropped by 4K last week despite expectations for an increase, demonstrating continued labor market strength.

Housing starts were down 4.2% in October, with single-family projects dropping to the lowest level in nearly 2.5 years. Permits fell 2.4%.

Builders continue to lose confidence. The NAHB housing market index fell for an 11th straight month to the lowest level since June 2012.

Mortgage application volumes moved higher for the first time in 8 weeks, with purchase apps up 4% for the week.

MarketMinute | See Why Americans Are Moving Further

Nov 4

6:24

AM

Category | Markets in a Minute

The Fed raised policy rates by 0.75% this week and signaled that future hikes may be smaller but rates may go higher than initially expected.

Manufacturing neared stagnation in October as orders contracted for the 4th time in 5 months, reaching the lowest level since May 2020.

According to ADP, wages increased 7.7% and companies added 239K jobs in October, more than expected, showing strength in the labor market.

Construction spending unexpectedly rebounded in September, despite a further decline in outlays on single-family homebuilding.

With slightly better rates for the first time in weeks, refinance applications rose 0.2% last week. Purchase apps fell 1%.

Homebuyers moved a median of 50 miles last year, up from the typical 15 miles, thanks to remote work and costly metros, according to NAR.

MarketMinute | Home Price News

Oct 28

8:48

AM

Category | Markets in a Minute

Consumer confidence ebbed in October after 2 straight monthly increases, reflecting concerns about inflation and a possible recession.

The economy posted its first period of positive growth for 2022 in the third quarter, at least temporarily easing recession fears.

Weekly jobless claims edged higher to 217K but were still below the 220K estimate and still signaled a strong labor market.

Despite cooling at a record pace in August, home prices were 13% higher nationally than last year, according to Case-Shiller.

New home sales fell 10.9% in September, following an unexpected gain in August. New home sales account for approximately 10% of the market.

Higher rates have pushed mortgage demand to nearly half of what it was last year. Last week’s purchase apps were down 42% year over year.