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MarketMinute | Something Is Falling In Price

Jun 10

3:34

AM

Category | Markets in a Minute

The Fed is expected to raise policy rates by 0.5% next week. This move was previously forecast and is already reflected in mortgage rates.

Jobless claims moved to the highest level since mid-January last week, totaling 229K, despite signs of an otherwise strong labor market.

Credit card balances have spiked to $841 billion and hit new record levels, as consumers deal with the highest inflation in 40 years.

Purchase mortgage applications fell 7% for the week and were 21% lower than the same week one year ago.

The pace of single-family home construction has fallen across large metro suburban areas due to supply chain issues and economic conditions.

Despite skyrocketing to record highs since the pandemic, lumber prices have fallen 12% this week, reaching a new low for 2022.

MarketMinute | Could inventory be on the rise at last?

Jun 3

4:38

AM

Category | Markets in a Minute

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE, rose 4.9% year over year in April, a deceleration from March and in line with estimates.

According to ADP, May saw the fewest jobs added since the pandemic recovery began, despite a record level of job openings.

Even with the hiring slowdown, demand for labor remained strong. Both new and continuing unemployment claims fell for the week.

According to Case-Shiller, home prices nationally were 20.6% higher in March than in March 2021, despite higher mortgage rates.

Realtor.com reports home listings increased for the first time since June 2019, suggesting housing supply could be improving.

Construction spending rose slightly in April. Single family home spending grew by 0.5%, and multi-family home spending was up 0.8%.

MarketMinute | Are Sales Finally Slowing Down?

May 27

9:08

AM

Category | Markets in a Minute

Durable goods orders placed with US factories rose in April, highlighting sustained demand for equipment and merchandise.

Fed minutes released Wednesday indicated officials are prepared to move ahead with multiple 50 basis points policy rate increases.

First-quarter GDP declined at a 1.5% annual pace, greater than the 1.3% Dow Jones estimate and the initially reported 1.4% rate.

Signed contracts for new homes dropped far more than expected in April, down 16.6% for the month and 26.9% for the year.

Pending home sales fell in April for a 6th straight month, as a steep climb in mortgage rates added to the challenge of low inventory.

Last week's purchase mortgage apps were down 12% for the week and 15% year over year, despite slight rate improvements.

MarketMinute | How are builders feeling about the market?

May 20

5:14

AM

Category | Markets in a Minute

Stocks continued to sell off in anticipation of an economic slowdown expected with future Fed actions, helping mortgage rates this week.

Retail spending increased 0.9% in April, despite inflation. This 4th straight monthly increase signals the economy is still strong.

Unemployment claims rose last week to 218K, the highest since January. However, continuing claims fell to the lowest level since 1969.

Existing home sales dropped in April to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic due to the ongoing lack of inventory.

Homebuilder sentiment dipped to a 2-year low in May, as declining demand and rising costs raised concerns. It is expected to bounce back.

Last week’s purchase mortgage applications fell 12% week to week and 15% year over year.

MarketMinute | ARMS Are Up

May 13

6:08

AM

Category | Markets in a Minute

Inflation expectations for the next year fell to a median 6.3% in April, a 0.3% decrease from the record high the previous month.

However, producer prices rose 11% in April, signaling continuing elevated consumer inflation in the near future.

Last week's jobs data showed slightly more jobs than expected added in April in an increasingly tight labor market and despite surging inflation.

Purchase mortgage applications rose 5% over the previous week. Although apps were down 8% from a year ago, that number is shrinking.

Apps for adjustable rate mortgages, which often have a lower starting rate than 30 yr fixed, surged to a 14-yr high, comprising 11% of apps.

Lumber prices are falling, down 30% and reaching their lowest level for the year. Prices are still above historical levels but could continue to drop.