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Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

  • The Consumer Price Index's annual inflation rate dropped for the 9th consecutive month in March, reaching its lowest level since May 2021.
  • Wholesale inflation also fell in March, hitting its lowest annual level since January 2021. Slowing inflation can be good for rates.
  • Newly released minutes from the Fed's last meeting indicated officials appear on track to raise policy rates one more time in May.

  • Purchase mortgage applications rose 8% last week, as buyers took advantage of a dip in interest rates.
  • Realtor.com reports a 44% increase in active listings over last year, though the rate of growth had slowed with last week’s report.
  • Despite moderating rate increases, only 20% of consumers surveyed by Fannie Mae in March thought now was a good time to buy a home. 

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

  • Private payrolls grew less than expected in March. ADP reported an increase of 145K, down significantly from 261K in February.
  • The Fed's key inflation gauge rose 0.3% in February. The less-than-expected growth provides hope the Fed may soon pause policy rate hikes.
  • Job openings fell below 10 million in February for the first time in 2 years, a sign the Fed’s efforts to slow the labor market may be working.

  • Home prices rose in February after 7 straight monthly declines, according to Black Knight. Lower rates and tight inventory boosted prices.
  • Tight inventory led to a 4% drop in purchase mortgage apps last week, even though interest rates fell.
  • New listings were down 20% year over year in March. Total inventory was about half of what it was in March 2019, just before the pandemic. 

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

  • Last week's jobless claims came in at 198K, higher than expected and up 7K from the previous week.
  • The economy grew 2.6% during the 4th quarter. This rate was slower than both the 2.9% estimate and last month’s 2.7% growth.
  • The "banking crisis" that drove rates down a couple of weeks ago seems to have stabilized, with no new bank failures reported recently.

  • January’s FHFA House Price Index showed prices for homes purchased with a mortgage grew 0.2% for the month and 5.3% for the year.
  • After a sharp gain in January, pending home sales rose for the 2nd straight month in February, despite higher mortgage rates and tight inventory.
  • The recent drop in mortgage rates boosted mortgage applications this week. Purchase apps rose 2%, and refi apps were up 5%. 

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

  • The Fed raised rates by 0.25% this week, calling for more hikes to come. Despite this, markets anticipate the Fed will have to cut rates by July.
  • Unemployment applications unexpectedly declined for a 2nd week. The job market remains tight with employers reluctant to lay off workers.
  • Short-term inflation expectations fell in March to the lowest level in 2 years, but consumer sentiment still fell due to persistently high prices.

  • Existing home sales rose 14.5% in February for the 1st monthly gain in 12 months and the largest increase since July 2020.
  • The median price of an existing home sold in February was $363K. This was a 0.2% annual decline and the first drop in over a decade.
  • Purchase mortgage applications increased 2% last week as the average contract interest rate fell. Refi apps increased 5%. 

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


Market Minute - Economy and Housing News - Erin Carvelli

  • Inflation fell for the 8th straight month in February, reaching the lowest level since September 2021. It remains higher than the Fed's 2% goal.
  • Although more jobs were created in February than expected, wage growth came in slightly slower, which helps the outlook of reduced inflation.
  • Retail sales fell in February after surging in January, suggesting that consumer spending is slowing down in the face of high inflation.

  • Single-family homebuilding and permits for future construction rebounded in February, offering hope the housing market is stabilizing.
  • Home builder confidence also improved for the 3rd straight month, despite high construction costs.
  • Purchase apps rose 7% last week. We may see an even bigger increase next week after this week’s rate drop. 

Market Minute Report - Mortgage News


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