Fed Chair Powell told a House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis this week that inflation is still seen as transitory, despite recent data showing big increases over last year. |
Powell also reaffirmed the Fed's intent to encourage a "broad and inclusive" job market recovery and to avoid interest rate increases based only on fear of coming inflation. |
Unemployment claims resumed their downward trend last week, after rising slightly in the prior week. The labor market continues to head toward a full recovery. |
The median price of an existing home was $250,300 in May, a 23.6% year-over-year increase. Low inventory and strong demand are fueling extraordinary home prices. |
Existing home sales in May were down for the 4th straight month, falling 0.9%, as just 1.23 million homes were for sale. That's a 2 1/2-month supply and a 20.6% drop from a year earlier. |
New home sales also fell in May, reaching a one-year low. The median price of newly built houses jumped 18.1% to $374,400, due in part to expensive materials, including lumber. |
The Fed kept policy rates unchanged at this month's meeting, but more officials forecast rate increases in 2023. The markets' response to Fed comments pressured rates higher. |
Inflation concerns grew this week, as May's producer prices rose at their fastest annual clip in nearly 11 years. Inflation increases are bad for mortgage rates, pushing them higher. |
Jobless claims continue to come in closer to what economists consider a normal range, a sign that the labor market continues to improve despite high continuing claims numbers. |
Homebuilder sentiment was down slightly in June from recent highs, as builders struggle with higher costs and declining availability of lumber and other building materials. |
Housing starts rose 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.572 million units last month, supported by an acute shortage of previously owned homes available for sale. |
The current hottest home outdoor amenity is a pool. Inground pools are in high demand, causing longer waits and higher prices for homeowners on a quest to create a staycation oasis. |
Consumer prices were up 5% year over year in May, the fastest pace since August 2008. Prices are rising as a rush of demand meets shortages in materials and labor. |
The core inflation rate, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 3.8% annually, the sharpest increase in nearly three decades due to last year's pandemic-related shutdown. |
The labor market recovery continues to gain steam. Unemployment claims fell for the 6th straight time last week, hitting the lowest level in nearly 15 months. |
Homeowner equity has more than doubled over the past decade, according to CoreLogic. Home prices were up 11% in March and 13% in April, the sharpest gains since 2006. |
More than 21,000 homes are going up in a new California community that will be the largest net-zero carbon emissions community in the nation, according to the developer. |
Purchase mortgage application volume was essentially flat last week. Overall applications fell, with refinance applications down 5% for the week and 27% year over year. |
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The core PCE rose 3.1% in April, more than expected. The index is generally considered a wide-ranging measure for inflation, and its growth reflects economic expansion. |
Oil prices are rising, supported by an OPEC+ decision to restore supply to the market gradually and by the slow pace of nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. |
According to the Fed, the economic recovery picked up steam in the past 2 months, sparking price pressures as businesses contended with labor shortages and rising costs. |
High prices and low supply could finally be taking some heat out of the housing market. Purchase applications fell 3% for the week and were 2% lower than a year ago. |
According to a recent survey, a record high 51% of homes are selling over asking price. Last year that number was 26%, showing that demand is higher than available inventory. |
There is speculation that housing inventory could increase when the eviction moratorium expires at the end of June and more homeowners exit forbearance. |
MarketMinute | Why Did Home Sales & Pending Home Sales Fall?
Consumer confidence hovered at a 14-month high in May, as optimism over jobs tempered concerns about rising inflation and diminishing government financial stimulus. |
Durable goods orders fell in April, the first time in a year. However, the decline was mainly due to a drop in the automotive sector, where an ongoing microchip shortage is an issue. |
The labor market continues to show signs of rebounding. Last week's initial jobless claims dropped more than expected to 406,000, a new pandemic low. |
Existing home sales fell for the third straight month in April. Demand remained strong, but sales were constrained by inventory, which was down 20%. |
Pending home sales also fell in April. Elevated asking prices, reflecting the limited supply of homes on the market, are making properties less affordable and curbing sales. |
Home price appreciation is accelerating as buyers continue to fight for limited inventory. Case-Shiller showed a year-on-year gain of 13.3% in March, up from 12% in February. |