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Consumer prices rose more than expected in March, up 0.6% from February and 2.6% from a year ago. However, the Fed expects inflation to be transitory and is not concerned.

 

Retail sales surged 9.8% in March over February, boosted by stimulus funds, warmer weather, and the removal of some pandemic related restrictions.

 

Jobless claims fell last week to the lowest level since March 2020, when the pandemic began. The decrease in claims shows the labor market continues to improve.

 

 

Home builder confidence increased slightly in April, according to the NAHB index, even as builders continued to grapple with rising lumber prices and supply chain issues.

 

Google searches reflect homebuyer challenges in a low-inventory market. Consumers are googling phrases like, "How much over asking price should I offer on a home in 2021?"

 

Purchase applications made up a majority of mortgage applications in March (52%), beating out refinance apps for the first time since December 2019 and underscoring the market's shift.

 

 

 


 

 

Stocks are once again hitting new record highs regularly, as they were before the pandemic. Investors remain optimistic about the recovering economy.

The minutes from last month's Fed meeting released this week reiterated the commitment to maintaining easy policy until we see stronger employment and inflation.

Continuing jobless claims were down last week, though initial jobless claims jumped for the 2nd week, underscoring the uneven nature of the labor market recovery.

 

 

 

President Biden's new infrastructure plan includes a $5 billion proposal for local government incentives to change zoning laws and allow more apartment buildings.

Trying to prevent a wave of foreclosures, the CFPB proposed rule changes this week to prohibit mortgage servicers from foreclosing on delinquent borrowers through Dec 31, 2021.

Although mortgage applications to purchase a home were down 5% for the week, they were up 51% over last year, highlighting the housing market's rebound from the start of the pandemic.

 

 


 

Consumer confidence hit a one-year high in March, supporting optimism for labor market improvements and accelerated economic growth in the coming months.

Private payrolls rose by 517,000 in March according to ADP, the fastest pace since September. Hospitality led the way, with the battered sector adding 169,000 new workers.

The most recent 4-week average for jobless claims fell to its lowest level since March 2020, though new claims came in slightly higher than expected.

 

 

Home prices continue to accelerate at an alarming pace, up 11.2% year-over-year in January, according to Case-Shiller. That is the largest annual gain in nearly 15 years.

February home sales fell 0.5% below last year's level, though pending home sales fell more than 10% compared with January, as record low supply stifles the housing market.

Construction spending was down slightly in February, likely hurt by an unusually harsh cold snap this winter. Spending was still up 5.3% over February 2020.

 


Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week that the economy is "much improved," crediting Congress and the Fed for providing "unprecedented" support during the pandemic.

The 4th-qtr GDP reading was raised to a revised 4.3% this week, and all signs point to the economy's improvement. Economists predict we may see growth as high as 7% this year.

Jobless claims hit a one-year low last week, another sign of a rebound. However, there are still almost 19 million people receiving unemployment checks.

 

Existing home sales fell in February, as supply dropped by the largest amount on record. With spring weather and greater vaccine availability, more homes may be listed.

New home sales also dropped in February, as builders faced higher costs and persistent delays. With limited supply and higher mortgage rates, affordability has taken a hit.

However, it is important to recognize that February existing home sales were still 9.1% higher than a year ago and that builders expect sales to rise due to strong demand.

 

 


Retail sales fell more than expected in February, probably due to the bitterly cold weather across the country. A rebound is considered likely next month.

The Fed kept policy rates unchanged this week, stating that current monetary policy is appropriate and there's no reason to push back against the recent Treasury yield surge.

Jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week to 770,000, the highest number since mid-February, as the labor market recovers in fits and starts.

 

Homebuilder confidence in the single-family housing market fell in March. Builders continue to face rising mortgage rates and rising costs for materials, especially lumber.

Housing starts fell 10.3% to a 6-month low during February's cold weather. It was likely a temporary setback for a housing market with lean inventory and strong demand.

Mortgage applications continued to fall as rates climbed, down 2.2% last week. However, purchase applications were still 5% higher than the same week a year ago.

 
 
 

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